You may have to wait a little longer for the Xbox 720 (durango). A lite version will be released first, according to “MS Nerd” an anonymous blogger who has a knack for forecasting the future of Microsoft (hence the alias).

“My understanding is that we’ll see a Xbox device in late 2013 which does Arcade-style games & all the current & future media apps with Kinect (with near-mode). It will be an ARM-based platform price-competitive with the Apple TV (if you own a Kinect already),” he posted on reddit. “At some point after that, we’ll see a Xbox Next, a true successor to the 360. Details about it are very hazy, except that, like the 360, it will do games for core-audiences & the same media apps as the other device, also with Kinect. Somewhat later, Kinect itself will likely receive a camera update for the video camera first. Around 2015-ish I expect a generational update, to add a better depth camera, processor & inter-connect.”

Personally, I’m skeptical whether causal gamers are willing to pay $100 or more for something that smartphones can already do. Even MS Nerd says his predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

“As an example, I recently wrote an Xbox-related paragraph at the end of one of my Windows Phone posts. The Windows Phone stuff was 90% true; the Xbox info was at best 50% true. Yet, those 3 or 4 lines got passed around on Twitter so rapidly, I could hardly believe my eyes. The craziest thing happened after that: sites like Kotaku & G4 picked it up and reported it,” he writes. “That being said, I’m not a complete hack-job. I’m not pulling things out of my behind. I have always, ALWAYS, said that I am not giving you straight-up facts. Nothing I have ever said, was claimed to be official. That is the nature of the beast. Take it or leave it.”